Every month someone sends me a TikTok saying the market is about to implode.
"Ben, it's over. Everyone's moving to Texas."
Then I check the data and nothing has changed except the narrative.
Here's what's actually happening in Denver right now:
The Market Isn't Crashing. It's Normalizing.
People got used to 2020-2021. Homes moving in 3 days with 12 offers. Sellers acting like they're auctioning off the Mona Lisa. Interest rates at 2.5%.
That was the anomaly. Not the market. The anomaly.
Now we're back to something that looks more like... a market. Where supply and demand actually exist. Where not every house turns into a bidding war. Where the person selling the house can't just email their realtor a list of people and have them start screaming numbers.
This Feels Bad Because We Got Used to Good
Buyers loved it in 2021 because there were fewer buyers.
Wait. No. Buyers hated it in 2021 because there were too many buyers and they were all willing to pay $40,000 over asking.
Now there are fewer *offers* on each house. Sellers have to actually price competitively. The market requires strategy instead of just showing up and throwing money at something.
This is not a crash. This is the market doing its job.
What Actually Crashed Was Irrational Pricing
In 2021-2022, we saw houses sitting on the market for longer. Prices stalling. Interest rates going from 2.5% to 7% in about 18 months. That changes *everything* for the monthly payment.
A $400,000 house at 2.5% = $1,520/month (mortgage only) A $400,000 house at 7% = $2,655/month (mortgage only)
Same house. $1,135 more per month. That's not a market crash. That's math.
People can't afford the same house on the same income with higher rates. So prices either come down or demand shrinks. In Denver, we're seeing both.
But Here's The Thing
Denver still appreciates.
We had a 5-year period (2017-2022) where this metro basically doubled in value. Not sustainable. Illegal, almost.
We're now in a period where the market is growing... normally. Like a real city. Not like we're trying to flip housing like Dogecoin.
Is that a crash? Only if you needed someone else to pay 8% more next year so you could sell your investment.
If you're buying a house because you like the location, the space, and your life? The price doesn't matter. The rate matters. And right now, rates are actually starting to move.
The Real Question Is Simpler
"Is now a good time to buy?"
That depends on: - Do you actually need a house? - Can you afford it at today's rates (not tomorrow's)? - Are you buying it for the right reasons?
Not: "Will it be worth more in 2 years?"
That's speculation. I'm not a speculator. I'm a realtor. And real estate works best when people live in their houses.
The market isn't crashing. It's just being honest again.